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4/4/2011 12:00:00 PM
I had Miss Easter, the Weather Dog for over 8 years and she loved this old man unconditionally day in and day out. That is all this old man had to love for over 8 years and NO human could have loved me like that. Then I got my adopted Daughter Ruby who loves me as if I was her real Dad.!! Then the Lord Decides that Miss Easter, my comforter was no longer needed on this Earth, Since I found true love through my adopted Daughter who would love this old man until I join Miss Easter on the Rainbow Bridge some day. So this old Weatherman will carry out my duties as a Weatherman alone without my Weather Dog until the good Lord calls me home too,!!!! This is the last Weather Blog on this Blog since the Weather Dog is not with us anymore and as respect for her I am closing this blog,!!!!!! Gary, Weatherman,
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3/1/2011 12:12:08 AM
The Spring of 2011 is going to be one of the worse and most violent Springs we have had for years told to the Weather Dog by Angels at ten minutes after midnight outside our apartment on March 1st,2011 which I cannot see any of them but she does and she is totally blind.!! This year we will have severe thunderstorms time and time again with their destructive powers of wind, rain and hail. There will be a lot of property damage besides a lot of utility damages all over the states. There will be a lot of flash flooding in places never heard of before and yes, the Weather Dog hates to say it but there will be loss of life too. Also she looks for flooding in some of the states and in some of the severest thunderstorms could be packing tornadoes that will do more property damage and take animal and human lives along with it. This will be one Spring to remember for years to come.!!!! Miss Easter, Weather Dog,
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11/5/2010 2:00:00 AM
Remembering the Flood of 1985
November 5, 2010, marks the 25th anniversary of the "Great Election Day Flood" of
1985. It ranks among the most destructive natural disasters to affect West Virginia and
northwestern Virginia. The event is an example of how severe weather indirectly related to a
hurricane can pound the Mid-Atlantic region.
Hurricane Juan made landfall along the central Gulf Coast and tracked several hundred
miles west of the Middle Atlantic states on October 31 and November 1. An offshoot
developed over North Carolina and moved through Virginia and Maryland on November 2. A
more vigorous low pressure system traveled from Florida to western Maryland from November
3-5. It brought a deluge to part of the Mid-Atlantic region on November 4-5. Double digit
rainfall pelted in some sections of West Virginia and northwestern VIrginia, along with widespread areas of
5 to 10 inches of rain, which fell on previously saturated ground.
West Virginia experienced epic flooding. At least 40 people died. The National Weather
Service reported:
"Along many rivers and streams, flooding of 100 to 500 year flood level frequencies
occurred. Records were established in the headwaters of the Monongahela and Potomac
basins, as well as along the Greenbrier and Little Kanawha rivers. Records were also set on
the Tygart, West Fork and Cheat rivers. The most heavily damaged towns were Parsons,
Rowlesburg, Albright, Petersburg, Franklin and Moorefield.
"A total of 29 counties were included in a disaster declaration. Floodwaters washed away
entire towns, roads and bridges. Of the nearly 9,000 homes affected, 4,000 were completely
destroyed. Total damage estimations were in excess of $577 million."
The Potomac River crested at 54 feet in Paw Paw, West Virginia (flood stage 25 feet). It
reached 34 feet in Harpers Ferry, West Virginia (flood stage 18 feet).
The Cheat, Tygart and West Fork rivers flowing north out of West Virginia into
Pennsylvania spread abundant ruin. Flooding devastated the Pennsylvania counties of
Somerset, Allegheny, Westmoreland, Washington, Fayette and Green.
In Virginia, the James, Roanoke and other rivers went on sprees. At Lynchburg, the James
climbed to 35 feet (flood stage 18 feet), shattering the 28 foot crest wrought by Hurricane
Camille in 1969. The river crested in Richmond at 30.8 feet, above a flood stage of 9 feet.
The Roanoke River at Roanoke crested at 23.4 feet, eclipsing the previous standard of
19.6 feet set by Hurricane Agnes in 1972. About 3,000 homes and 100 businesses were
damaged or destroyed.
In Rockingham County, located in northwestern Virginia, floodwaters inundated 4,000
homes and 350 farms and closed 95 percent of the primary and secondary roads.
When the downpours ended, 40 counties in Virginia were declared federal disaster areas.
Flooding wasn't only the result of heavy rain. Persistent gales generated the worst rise in
many years along the Chesapeake Bay and some of its tidal tributaries.
"Along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries in southern
Maryland," wrote Joseph Moyer, the Maryland state climatologist, "strong easterly winds
combined with storm tides reaching 4 to 6 feet above normal, accompanied by waves of 6 to 8
feet, resulted in extensive damage to piers and sea walls, as well as to buildings and roads.
Considerable beach and soil erosion was reported. Water levels were reported as the highest
since the Hurricane of August 1933."
"Juan Big Storm," Patrick Michaels, Virginia's state climatologist called it. Well, at least
Juan's offshoot was one big storm.
Rick Schwartz, author of Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States
ricschwartz@yahoo.com
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10/21/2010 3:00:00 PM
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20101021_winteroutlook.html NOAA: Another Winter of Extremes in Store for U.S. as La Niña Strengthens Issued: October 21, 2010
The Pacific Northwest should brace for a colder and wetter than average winter, while most of the South and Southeast will be warmer and drier than average through February 2011, according to the annual Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. A moderate to strong La Niña will be the dominant climate factor influencing weather across most of the U.S. this winter. La Niña is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, unlike El Niño which is associated with warmer than normal water temperatures. Both of these climate phenomena, which typically occur every 2-5 years, influence weather patterns throughout the world and often lead to extreme weather events. Last winter’s El Niño contributed to record-breaking rain and snowfall leading to severe flooding in some parts of the country, with record heat and drought in other parts of the country. Although La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, it also has the potential to bring weather extremes to parts of the nation. “La Niña is in place and will strengthen and persist through the winter months, giving us a better understanding of what to expect between December and February,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “This is a good time for people to review the outlook and begin preparing for what winter may have in store.” “Other climate factors will play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.” Regional highlights include: - Pacific Northwest: colder and wetter than average. La Niña often brings lower than average temperatures and increased mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months, which is good for the replenishment of water resources and winter recreation but can also lead to greater flooding and avalanche concerns;
- Southwest: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
- Northern Plains: colder and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding;
- Southern Plains, Gulf Coast States & Southeast: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
- Florida: drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions;
- Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: warmer and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding;
- Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow;
- Central U.S.: equal chances of above-near-or below normal temperatures and precipitation;
- Hawaii: drier than normal through November, then wetter than normal December through February. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter, with several locations remaining on track to become the driest year on record. Drought recovery is more likely on the smaller islands of Kauai and Molokai, and over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui;
- Alaska: odds favor colder than average temperatures with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. The interior and southern portions of the state are currently drier than normal. A dry winter may set Alaska up for a greater chance of above normal wildfire conditions in the spring.
This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.
NOAA's National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/US.National.Weather.Service.gov. NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit http://www.noaa.gov.
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9/10/2010 11:51:28 PM
The Weather Dog so far has said the way it is adding up to her in the signs of her logic plus the birds and animals are talking to her.The angels that talk to all the animals and fowl of the air come in our home and weather station every day talks to her and yes she can see them even if she is totally blind.? The Weather Dog so far is predicting a very cold, cold with temps below zero this Winter and she said she would finish her prediction before Thanksgiving comes around. Sorry she said she has been eating alot of turkey and almost foregot the weather. We will have normal amounts of snow in the Northeast but nothing like last Winter.!!! Let those dumb humans come up with something better. OK.? Miss Easter,,,the Weather Dog,
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7/24/2010 6:25:32 PM
The 3 H's of Summer means to a lot of you dumb humans Hazy, Hot and Humid. I told my Daddy, the Weatherman back in the month of June to tell his friends we were going to have a Hot, Dry Summer and those dumb humans laughed at him so I shut up my mouth until yesterday.Then I told him to call NWS out of Pittsburgh, PA to the Chief, Richard Kane and also the Chief of NWS out of Charleston, WV. Allen Rizek and tell them if these dumb humans are complaining about the month of July being hot, then they haven't seen anything yet wait until August and maybe up into September.? And Rich and Allen agreed with the Weather Dog that their models are showing an above normal temps for August. I was outside this morning at 6:00am and listened at the birds and animals talking and I hate to tell you dumb humans what you are in for. The crops out west will only be half what they normally are and that means higher food prices. In some states the farmers will have to sell some live stock because of water and food supplies are low. A lot of farmers in some states will have to start and feed hay to their live stock because they do not have any more grass to feed their stock due to no rain or very little of it. In some places lakes and ponds will go low or even some will dry up all together and what do you think about rivers and streams in some parts of our country will get low or even some will almost dry up. Yes, you dumb humans will suffer the most with blackouts in some areas of our country every day due to the heat and what due you think about the birds and animals, we have to suffer right along with you dumb humans. My next report will be the last of August or September. Thankyou for listening, The Weather Dog
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4/13/2010 7:40:33 PM
Gary...
For each day, month, season and year, the way the weather patterns
develop around the globe is dependent on the interaction between the
oceans, land masses and our trip around the sun. At different times
different parts of the globe contribute more or less to the patterns.
There is no true single powerhouse that does it all. Articles such as
this identify a point in time and try to identify the biggest player at
that time.
Alan Rezek, National Weather Service, Charleston, WV. Gary P. Burch wrote:
Alan,
Please explain if you can.?
Check out this link for an interesting article written by Jack Williams... Jack William's Story Gary,
Agree with Alan. Additionally, there is generally no free lunch in the
atmosphere. There's something called teleconnections in that the long
wave weather pattern across each of the hemispheres are typically
connected. If there is an unusual trough or cut-off low pressure system
over eastern Canada (our current state) then somewhere else there's
probably a corresponding ridge with warmer air pushed northward.
Essentially, large persistent upper level patterns affect and are
affected by the upwind and downstream flow.
Rich Kane National Weather Service Pittsbugh, PA.
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3/13/2010 10:45:44 PM
http://www.easternsnow.org/meetings/1998/abstracts/drobins.htm
The Montague Snowstorm of January 11-12, 1997
David A. Robinson
A major lake effect snow event struck areas downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario between January 10-14, 1997. During a 24-hour period on the 11th and 12th, a National Weather Service (NWS) snow spotter at Montague, NY, located on the Tug Hill Plateau just east of Lake Ontario, reported six measurements of snowfall, which when summed, totaled 77 inches. If accepted as a valid total, this would surpass the previous national 24-hour snowfall record of 76", observed at Silver Lake, CO on April 14-15, 1921.
Shortly after the event, the NWS assembled a committee of snow experts from academic and government communities to investigate the Montague observation. This involved a field trip to the Tug Hill region to interview the Montague observer, several other snow spotters, local authorities and snow removal crews. It also included climatologic analyses of this and earlier lake effect events, and an evaluation of snow measurement standards. The team also evaluated the Silver Lake event, however it was not the mission of the committee to verify or refute the Colorado observation.
Following careful evaluation and deliberation, the committee recommended that the 77" total not be recognized as a national record. While the six observations during the 24 hour interval were made in a valid scientific manner, thus providing valuable support for real-time NWS operations, they were taken at intervals too frequent to qualify as a valid 24 hour observation. NWS standards require that no more than four observations, taken with a maximum frequency of once every six hours, be summed within any 24-hour period to compute the total snowfall for that period. More frequent measurements, accompanied by clearing the snow board following each observation, tend to increase totals. This is especially true for lake effect events, when snow densities are often quite low, as was the case in the January 1997 storm.
The committee felt strongly that the legacy of this investigation should not just be the evaluation of this single event. Therefore, they took the opportunity in the study report (NWS Special Report, March 1997) to recommend that, 1) the NWS should insure training materials and snow boards be made available and placed in use at all observing stations, and 2) that the National Climatic Data Center take the lead in establishing a committee that would be responsible for assessing observations submitted as national meteorological/climatological extreme values. The latter has been established, and recently evaluated, and subsequently refuted, a reported world-record wind gust on Guam last Fall.
Observations of snow made by volunteer observers are crucial for real- time NWS operations, as well as for insuring a lengthy climatologic data base. This is particularly true at present, when snow observations have been reduced or eliminated at many first-order NWS stations. However, to maintain the integrity of climatic records, thus permitting comparisons and analyses to be made over time at individual stations and between stations, established snow measurement standards must be followed. It is the responsibility of the National Weather Service to educate and equip observers, and the responsibility of the observers to follow standard observing procedures.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Department of Geography
Rutgers University
54 Joyce Kilmer Ave.
Piscataway, NJ 08854
E-mail: drobins@rci.rutgers.edu
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2/27/2010 5:22:34 AM
Received the following information from retired NWS climatologist and long-term friend Robert Leffler on Friday, February 26 on email:
" According to my research, the National Weather Service supervised and published COOP station at Davis, West Virginia has just set a new all-time monthly snowfall record for WV. This morning's 7 a.m. February 26, 2010 24-hour snowfall report of 12.9 new inches (a paralyzing blizzard according to eyewitness reports) gives the site a February total of 105.4 inches!
Since National Weather Service forecasts for this area call for additional large accumulations the remaining three days of the month (26th through the 28th), the new record that appears to have been established today will likely be again smashed.
The Davis 3SE NWS COOP observer station is located at an elevation of 3,715 feet in the north-central Allegheny Mountains of Tucker Co. on the summit of Canaan Mountain. The site lies on the western lip of Canaan Valley, the highest large valley (3,200 ft.) in eastern North America. The highest elevations in the area reach 4,770 feet (Mt. Porte Crayon on the Eastern Continental Divide).
I found two previous monthly WV published snowfall totals of greater than 100 inches at published NWS COOPs; 104.0 inches at Terra Alta, several miles northwest of Davis, WV in January, 1977 and 100.4 inches at Kumbrabrow, WV near Elkins, in March, 1960.
Season-to-date snowfall at Davis 3SE as of 7 a.m. Feb 26, 2010 is 233.5 inches. This does not match the previous seasonal WV record of 301.4 inches, set at the Kumbrabow NWS COOP site during the 1959-60 winter. However, there are still about 8 weeks to go in the typical snow measurement season at the higher elevations.
I would hope that the State Climate Extremes Committee will be activated to address my findings."
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2/5/2010 4:30:13 PM
Friday, February 5 is National Weatherperson's Day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1744. Jeffries, one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774 and he took the first balloon observation in 1784. This is a day to recognize the men and women who collectively provide Americans with the best weather, water, and climate forecasts and warning services of any nation. Many of us take weather information for granted. Turn on a light switch, you get light. Turn on your television or radio, or check a web site and you get the weather forecast. It’s easy to forget that around the clock, dedicated meteorologists and weathercasters are vigilantly creating forecasts to help you plan your day, and issuing warnings to help keep you safe. The men and women at your local National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office gather the raw weather data, analyze the data, and study numerical computer models in order to issue the weather and river forecasts and warnings to protect life and property. Specialized marine and aviation forecasts help enhance the Nation’s economy. Spot forecasts help firefighters control wildfires and emergency management officials contain hazardous chemical spills. Extensive climate records help engineers, architects, researchers, insurance companies and utilities. The primary mission of the NWS is to provide the American public with the best possible warning service to save lives. Recent severe weather statistics show that we continue to improve our capability to warn the public of impending hazardous weather. Nationally, lead time for flash flood warnings improved from 22 minutes in 1993 to 78 minutes in 2008. Accuracy over the same time period increased from 71 percent to 91 percent. Lead time for tornado warnings has increased from 6 minutes in 1993 to 13 minutes today. Tornado warning accuracy increased from 43 percent to 72 percent. Winter storm accuracy in 2008 was 89 percent with an average lead time of 17 hours. Since 1990, the Tropical Prediction Center’s 24 to 72 hour tropical storm forecast track errors have been reduced by more than 50%. These more accurate and longer lead time warnings help communities stay safe. But the NWS couldn't accomplish its mission without a diverse group of partners helping in the process. Nationwide, more than 11,000 volunteer Cooperative Observers take regular measurements of temperature, precipitation and other data, which is used by forecasters and climatologists. Nearly 300,000 volunteer storm spotters are trained by the NWS to provide visual reports of severe weather conditions to forecast offices and local emergency management officials. Volunteer amateur radio operators provide critical emergency communications during severe weather. Most of the colorful weather graphics seen on television and in newspapers come from another member of the America's weather team. Commercial weather companies enhance the presentation of the NWS data and information for their clients in the media and in many weather-sensitive industries, and provide customized forecasts and services for clients. And finally, television weathercasters are the most visible members of America's weather team. They are the trusted faces many people turn to for weather information, and they relay the NWS’s official watches and warnings for hazardous weather. On National Weatherperson's Day, the NWS would like to thank all of the volunteers and our partners in television and commercial weather services. Thank you! Source of this information is from the NWS website in Medford Oregon. Link is shown below: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/skywarn/wxpersday09.php
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